Squishy Polls, Changing Demographics: Election Factors to Watch in NC

Duke political experts brief media on North Carolina's importance in upcoming election

North Carolina is considered a close and must-win state for presidential candidates Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. Both campaigns have spent millions in the state and held numerous rallies here.

Four Duke experts Tuesday discussed the North Carolina electorate, the issues behind support for either candidate in North Carolina, polling and changing demographics.

HOW MUCH FAITH SHOULD WE PUT IN POLLS?

鈥淧olls are not a tool that are sufficient for doing the work that we want them to do in a close election. They just aren't,鈥 said Sunshine Hillygus, a professor of political science and director of the

鈥滶ven if the methods were perfect, you are still going to run into the fact that we don't know who's going to turn out, and so the scientific value of a poll is, if you take a random sample from the population, you can generalize from that sample to the population with a margin of error. However, we don't know the population because we don't know who's going to turn out, and so pollsters have to make assumptions. There is also now documented that that Trump voters are particularly hard to reach or less likely to respond when they do get reached, and so different pollsters are kind of confronting and dealing with that in different ways.鈥


WILL GOP GUBERNATORIAL CANDIDATE MARK ROBINSON鈥橲 SLIDE AFFECT OTHER CANDIDATES IN NC?

鈥淵ou might want to boldly predict a (Democratic candidate Josh) Stein victory over Mark Robinson, and perhaps a big one,鈥 said Pope 鈥淢ac鈥 McCorkle, a professor of the practice at the Sanford School of Public Policy at Duke. 鈥淭he caution is that the polling for Roy Cooper in 2020 in his re-election bid, he was winning by double digits in most of the polls and only ended up winning by 5. So the Stein campaign is definitely on guard for not believing the polling.鈥

鈥淭here's been no ads for Mark Robinson in the last three weeks, even though he is the star of almost every Democratic ad. 鈥 (W)hether there's reverse coattails that hurts Trump, probably not significantly, but even a couple thousand votes can matter in North Carolina, where the real damage might be done is in the down ballot races.鈥

HOW CONCERNED SHOULD WE BE ABOUT CHALLENGES TO ELECTION RESULTS?

鈥It's really extraordinary in some ways that we're even having this conversation right, almost four years since Jan. 6 and given everything that's transpired,鈥 said Asher Hildebrand, a professor of the practice at the Sanford School of Public Policy. 鈥淓ven though Congress has tightened the electoral count, and has kind of closed some of the pathways through which a president could challenge the results, there's still plenty of ground in the system we have for a losing candidate to cause trouble, and if enough trouble is caused at the margins, that could be decisive.鈥

HOW WILL CHANGING DEMOGRAPHICS IN NC AFFECT THE ELECTION?

鈥淵ou know, it could be the difference in the election in North Carolina this year,鈥 said Kerry Haynie, dean of social sciences and a professor of political science and African & African American studies. 鈥淟et me start with going back to Georgia in the last election, 2020, and we saw President Biden won Georgia. North Carolina may be beginning to look like Georgia in terms of demographics, in terms of racial and ethnic demographics, but also the number of people moving into the state from the outside. There's been a change in the population quite a bit since the last four years 鈥 and that could be enough to make North Carolina trend from purplish to blue.鈥

鈥淚t's a purple state. It's been contested in the last couple of election cycles. I think it would be close in this state, but the demographic shift could be enough to give a slight advantage to Harris," said Haynie, who also directs Duke鈥檚 .

Faculty Participants

Kerry Haynie
is dean of social sciences and a professor of political science and African & African American studies. He directs Duke鈥檚 . Haynie researches race and ethnic politics, legislative processes, state and Southern politics and comparative urban politics.

Asher Hildebrand
 is a professor of the practice at the Sanford School of Public Policy. Hildebrand served for nearly 15 years in congressional offices and on campaigns, including President Barack Obama鈥檚 2012 campaign in North Carolina. He was formerly chief of staff to U.S. Representative David Price (D-NC).

Sunshine Hillygus
is a professor of political science and director of the . She studies American political behavior -- including young voters, campaigns and elections, public opinion and information technology and politics.

Pope 鈥淢ac鈥 McCorkle
is a professor of the practice at the Sanford School of Public Policy at Duke. McCorkle has been an issues consultant to political candidates, state governments and others for more than 25 years.

More experts on North Carolina politics are available